BY SARAH ROSS

PORTLAND- A new poll released on Tuesday continues to show this year’s gubernatorial race to be a close one, despite fundraising efforts telling a different story.

Rasmussen Reports, the firm conducting the poll, stated, “Little has changed in the race to be Oregon’s next governor, with Republican Chris Dudley and Democrat John Kitzhaber still running neck-and-neck.”

The poll puts Dudley just three points ahead of Kitzhaber with 47 percent to 44 percent. Five percent of respondents preferred another candidate, and 4 percent are undecided.

With only a three percent difference, the results fall well within the poll’s +/- 4 percent margin of error. The campaign fundraising, however, is not as close as polling on the race has been.

Kitzhaber, the former statesman and Oregon governor, has raised $1,334,001 so far in 2010, while former professional basketball player Dudley has raised a whopping $2,210,664 in this election cycle.

As of July 28, The Cook Political Report still classified the race as leaning Democratic, meaning it is in the category of races considered competitive but where one party has an advantage.

Senior Editor at the Cook Report Jennifer Duffy said the race is a good example of an outsider attempting to take on an established politician.

“It’s one of five in the country where you have a former governor seeking his old job back, which is kind of interesting considering how tough it is to be governor these days,” said Duffy, adding that it should be a “good race.”

Duffy noted that while it is currently listed as a lean-Democrat state, implying that party has a small advantage, it could be moving into the more competitive section.

“It would not surprise me if sometime over the next couple of months I move it into toss-up,” she said.

She also mentioned that this kind of movement happens all the time and that this race alone is a good example, since it started as a likely Democratic state and has since moved to leaning Democratic.

When asked what factors go into determining how a race is moved from one category to another, she said that fundraising and good polling are the biggest things to consider.

“I got sort of a first answer when I saw their fundraising numbers. So obviously Dudley is proving he can raise money,” she said. “I’d like to see some good polling because the polling that I have seen has left something to be desired. They do show a single digit race, but I’d like to see a live interview poll. And so that will be the other factor.”

BY SARAH ROSS

PORTLAND- An internal poll released Wednesday brings into question the electoral safety of long time Senator Ron Wyden.

Portland based polling firm, Moore Information, made public their survey results paid for by the Huffman campaign which showed that 37% of Oregonians support a GOP candidate for Sen. Wyden’s seat while 36% favored the incumbent Democratic Party. Twenty-eight percent of respondents remained undecided, as of when the survey was performed on July 10^th.

The poll questioned a “representative sample of 500 likely voters in Oregon” and had a 4 percent sampling error with a 95 percent confidence level.

Moore also found that 44 percent of respondents believed Sen. Wyden deserves reelection today while 45 percent would prefer a new candidate and 11 percent are still unsure.

The survey also found that after mentioning a number of statements about Huffman’s background and views, he led over Wyden with 47 percent to 38 percent.

In addition to the questions regarding the Senatorial race, Moore also questioned respondents on a number of national issues.

The poll showed that 59 percent of Oregonians believe the country is on the wrong track while 29 percent think America’s headed in the right direction.

Republican senatorial candidate, Jim Huffman

Further, 45 percent of respondents approved of President Obama’s performance and 50 percent disapproved of the job he’s doing. This is compared to the daily Gallup poll which puts Obama’s approval at 44 percent and disapproval at 48 percent as of July 15th.

In the memo to the Huffman Campaign, Bob Moore, President of Moore Information, said Sen. Wyden is vulnerable because “he is an incumbent U.S. Senator in an election year where many voters are demanding a change in congressional leadership.”

Moore also said that Wyden’s voting history does not match the views of Oregonians on issues including Cap and Trade, federal spending and the deficit, health care reform, immigration, and terrorism.

“Huffman is in a position to retire Senator Wyden because his views on these issues are more in-line with the mainstream of the Oregon electorate,” said Moore.

Sen. Wyden has served in the U.S. Senate since 1996 and was reelected in 2004 with 63 percent of the vote. A Rasmussen poll released at the end of May found Wyden leading with support from 51 percent of respondents to Huffman’s 38 percent.

In a release sent to the press on Thursday, Jake Weigler, campaign manager for the Wyden campaign said the poll memo “failed to provide an unbiased head-to-head comparison between Wyden and Huffman,” pointing to the method of polling respondents only after providing information about the candidates.

“Huffman and Moore are releasing laughable poll numbers to distract reporters from their as-yet unreleased fundraising numbers due out today,” said Weigler in Thursday’s release. In the same release, Weigler noted that Wyden has thus far raised $977,000 for the quarter ending on June 30^th.

The Huffman campaign, however, saw the poll numbers as positive.

“I am confident in Bob Moore, who’s been polling for almost as long as Ron Wyden’s been in Washington, DC,” said Huffman’s campaign spokesman, John Vinson. “He’s one of the most well respected pollsters in the Northwest and in the country.”

Vinson noted that running against Sen. Wyden is not an easy task but that the “people of Oregon want a new voice in Washington to stand up for them and who really isn’t interested in a Washington, DC career, but is interested in bringing jobs back to Oregon.”

DISCLOSURE: Jim Huffman is an unpaid academic advisor for the Cascade Policy Institute, parent organization of the Oregon Politico.

BY SARAH ROSS

PORTLAND- The latest Rasmussen poll regarding Oregon’s race for U.S. Senate released Wednesday showed a large lead for Democratic incumbent Senator Ron Wyden.

Sen. Wyden showed strength with 51 percent of support among respondents, while Republican candidate Jim Huffman drew support from 38 percent of respondents.

This poll showed an increase of support for both Wyden and Huffman from the last poll on the race which came out in February. February’s poll numbers were 49 percent for Wyden and 35 percent for Huffman.

Wednesday’s poll had 4 percent of respondents favoring another candidate and 7 percent still undecided. Rasmussen polled 500 likely voters for this poll and had a 4.5 percent margin of error.

According to the article Rasmussen released with the poll, incumbent candidates with less that 50 percent of support at this time before the election are considered politically vulnerable, which is good news for Oregon’s senior Senator.

Sen. Wyden was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996 and was reelected with 63 percent of the vote in 2004.