BY SARAH ROSS
Gubernatorial candidates Chris Dudley (top left), John Kitzhaber (top right), Bill Bradbury (bottom left), Allen Alley (bottom right)
PORTLAND- The latest poll conducted by the SurveyUSA polling firm shows that if the gubernatorial election were held today, John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley would have large wins in their respective primary races.
The poll, which was released on Monday, shows Chris Dudley winning the Republican primary with 42% of the vote and Allen Alley coming in second at 24%. Similarly, John Kitzhaber is shown to win the Democratic primary with 59%, while Bill Bradbury gains 25% of support from respondents. The other candidates in each race each gained less than 10% support. The number of undecided voters in each race came in at 12% in the Democrat primary and 14% in the GOP primary.
While Dudley’s and Kitzhaber’s campaigns were both encouraged by the numbers in this poll, Bradbury’s and Alley’s campaigns were skeptical of the results.
“Any poll that has Bradbury leading among conservative Democrats is a poll to be highly skeptical of,” says Jeremy Wright, spokesman for the Bradbury campaign. “The Bradbury campaign has talked with over 50,000 likely Democratic voters with live calls and the race is far closer than this poll indicates and the number of undecided voters is a lot higher.”
The spokesmen for both Alley and Bradbury questioned the methodology of the poll, considering the polling is done by an automated polling system.
“The Republican sample in this poll is random, not scientific,” added Tim Maloney, Campaign Manager for Alley. “SurveyUSA’s methodology of randomly dialing households with an automated system fails to control for trends in Republican primaries.”
This skepticism is not stopping Kitzhaber’s and Dudley‘s campaigns from feeling confident. Derek Humphrey, campaign manager for John Kitzhaber, said he was encouraged by the numbers but that his campaign would take nothing for granted in the coming days.
Dudley’s campaign shared a similar sentiment. “The poll is a reflection that Chris’s message is resonating with Oregonians,” said LeRoy Coleman, Communications Director for the campaign. He added a note of caution, saying, “We still have a ways to go before the primary and he will continue to fight for each and every vote.”
SurveyUSA conducted the poll on behalf of KATU-TV. To reflect Oregon’s population, just over 2,000 adults were interviewed, with 1,850 of those respondents registered to vote. Each of the primary polls for the Governor’s race had under a 5% margin of error. The Democratic primary poll had a 3.9% margin of error, while the Republican primary had a 4.7% margin of error.
While election ballots already have been mailed to voters, the date for ballots to be returned for the 2010 Primary is May 18.
Maloney added that surveys can only say so much about an election: “This race is closer than this poll would have you believe. Elections are decided by the people who vote, not answer surveys.”
